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US election pollsters get predictions wrong by underestimating white turnout in rural areas | Daily Mail Online

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How How did the pollsters get it so wrong? They underestimated white turnout in rural areas and overestimated black and millennial voters

  • Until the eleventh hour predictions were that Hillary had an 85 percent chance of winning the election
  • Even Tuesday’s exit poll had Clinton winning almost everywhere at 5 p.m.
  • Trump supporters claim the speculators got it wrong because of partisan bias after the Republican won a stunning victory
  • ‘People have been told that they have to be embarrassed to support Donald Trump, even in a telephone poll,’ says consultant Frank McCarthy
  • Of all major national surveys, the LA Times and IBD/TIPP tracking polls were the only two to call a Trump victory  
  • Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight – which correctly called the last two elections – forecast a 66 per cent likelihood that Clinton will take the White House
  • CBS, ABC/Washington Post, Bloomberg, Rasmussen, Monmouth University and NBC News/Survey Monkey all got it wrong 

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919098/Pollsters-kicking-getting-predictions-wrong-underestimating-white-turnout-rural-areas-overestimating-black-millennial-voters.html#ixzz4PWi9j0ei
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebookntil the eleventh hour predictions were that Hillary had an 85 percent chance of winning the election. Even Tuesday’s exit poll had Clinton winning almost everywhere at 5 p.m.

Source: US election pollsters get predictions wrong by underestimating white turnout in rural areas | Daily Mail Online

Is the World Falling Apart? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Is the World Falling Apart? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The world can be an awfully dangerous and unpredictable place. As news was breaking that the United States initiated airstrikes against militants in Iraq, fears were mounting about the Russian troops amassed near the border with Ukraine, momentarily eclipsing headlines of the war in Gaza, the insurgency in Syria, tensions in Asia, and other global concerns. And every day seems to bring more bad news as instability rages on.

But is the level of turmoil really unique? Or does it just feel like it?

Carnegie experts from around the world assess the situation and today’s foremost geopolitical hotspots. It’s some much-needed sober analysis during heady times…

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